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Sunday, March 2, 2014

Quick Update

Sold off all of my past investments.

Decided to base my new portfolio around managing risk.

I took the aggressive small mid cap growth value play for the next 1-3 months.

Here's my portfolio allocation, I don't think I should give you exact dollar value.



All of these stocks have fast earnings growth and have relatively decent charts. They are either in a nice uptrend or are falling onto a support line.

I'm also thinking about buying some puts on TSLA.

I think it's a bubble waiting to pop.

People are buying this thing up with irrational exuberance, and I feel like even the misinformed are buying this stock because it is simply the "starling of the stock market" these days.


But as for right now, it is still a bit too volatile and unpredictable for my tastes. I might stay away from it for the moment.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

1/28/14

My plan of attack has changed by quite a bit.

I personally feel quite bearish on the markets in the next 3-5 weeks.

Honestly, I'm quite paranoid about some of the macroeconomic aspects of the global economy.

Now, I'm not personally saying that I predict a huge bear market to come along the way very soon, but I am quite cautious.

I literally dumped all of my past holdings, they were all small and mid cap growth companies.

I was burned on NUS. They are now being investigated for their business being some giant pyramid scheme in China and I lost quite a bit of cash on that investment.

It really sucks. I doubt even the insiders were in on that information and I am really still quite pissed off. The technicals and fundamentals were strong in the company and it was still in quite an uptrend by the time it lost over half its value within a week.

Insider selling was at its yearly high. I was and still am expecting a much larger market correction than the measly 3% drop we had yesterday and on friday.

I also heard we are also entering a currency crisis. I heard that major banks are going to default within the next 3 weeks, and that the stock markets are going to go into a violent downtrend trend not just in domestic U.S. securities but also all around the world.

So right now I am just scalping a few percentage points for my portfolio in order make up for some ground that was lost because of NUS.

For example, I bought GE. (I bought an even distribution of GE, KMX, NKE, KMX, and WM shares).


The recent tumultuous market activity lately has sent these 5 large cap stocks into undervalued territory, at least in a short term perspective.

I bought all these 5 stocks on monday so I am enjoying a bit of profit.

But if the currency crisis gets worse and worse, I will eventually get out of all 5 of these stocks.

I'll probably put in a stop loss order for 3-4% if these trades get really profitable, otherwise I'll just dump all these shares at limit price on Friday.

I don't know, I guess I am just really pissed off with NUS.


Although it is still a really good company with quality fundamentals, it was battered so hard because of recent news surrounding the company.

This past week was really eye-opening. I learned that random crap that you can't control sometimes happens. 

Just got to cut your losses and move on to the next trading opportunity. You can't dwell on any of it.

-Kevin

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Changes

I'm going to make this short and sweet.

I just got the last $20,000 added to the portfolio.

I sold EXPR.

Although I believe the stock still has quite a bit of upside for it later on in the future, since we are now in a bull market I think investors will actually flock away from this stock in search of other investment opportunities that can provide a more handsome return.

The price of EXPR since its IPO has been volatile and hasn't really taken off. They have some things they need to sort out.

So with the remaining funds that I had, I bought 3 other stocks and divided my remaining cash evenly among the three positions.

First off, I bought AutoNation.


Decent fundamentals. PEG is quite nice for my tastes.

EPS growth is expected.

P/E and FWD P/E are nice.

Decent ROE, ROI, ROA.

Only thing this company might have a problem with is how it has very little cash reserves, as shown by the P/C ratio.

But I mainly bought this company on a macroeconomic standpoint.

The average US car is around 11.4 years old, from what I hear. Click here for the article. (autonews.com)

People will be looking for new cars with the rising economy and bull market.

AutoNation is a nice pick.

CarMax and some Auto Manufacturers would have been nice picks too, but I like AutoNation the most.

My next buy was QIWI.

The fundamentals.


I like.

The only problem with this position is that I bought it with an RSI in the overbought range.

Who knows? I might be burned a bit short term because of this, but I really want in and I don't have the time nor effort to time the perfect entry point.

My last buy was VFC

They own a lot of nice clothing brands.

The North Face and Timberland are among them.

They have also recently had a 4 for 1 split.

They are doing very well.

The fundamentals from FINVIZ are wrong, because they didn't take into account the split and now the stats are all screwed up.

I like this company for their nice all around stats.

Don't have anything else to say about it.

-Kevin

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Sunday Update

It is about that time where I have to look over my holdings for the week and see how they performed.

Overall, my portfolio looks great. It performed well this week.

Really well.

I am holding four securities right now at the moment.

For this post I will just be reviewing the technical strength of my holdings; the glowing fundamentals of my three long term investments are still intact and fine, and my speculation stock is still ok.

The first one is UBNT.


As you can see, the technicals of this stock have varying cases and tell different stories.

What I pull out of this chart which includes RSI, MACD, and Full Stochs is that for the next one to two days, the stock probably will slip a bit in price, I think that that the Stochs and Bollinger Bands shows that for near term, the stock has reached a height in its trend.

But the long term prospects for the stock are still great. For one, the MACD is finally climbing up. If you look at the MACD in the very left of the chart to where July is, the stock began a climb and began to resemble a chart pattern that is called the "Elliot Wave".



Boom. If we take a closer look at the MACD which is annotated I will number the patterns that the MACD of EXPR follows which corresponds to the Elliot Wave.

Want an explanation of why I just did what I did? Download this PDF to find out what I just based those letters and numbers off of.

I think the long term prospectus of UBNT are great.

I think the short term price fluctuations of the stock will be more towards the negative during the next few market days.

Let's move on to NUS.



Though the fundamentals are incredibly strong, NUS is also positioned for a short term sell-off. The stock has been lingering at the top of its Bollinger Band for too long and the Full Stochs says that it is incredibly overbought in terms of short term fluctuations. The RSI is also heading towards the pinnacle as well.

But I also noticed that the RSI tends to soar right back up whenever the stock reaches around a 50 RSI level.

If this stock goes down to a 50 RSI level, I will definitely be picking up more of this stock.


MNST, my best performer out of all of my holdings, is also approaching an incredibly overbought level.

This is no big deal at all. I want to hold this for the long term.

But I also think that this will be selling off in the short term.

Now, let's talk about my speculation - EXPR.


Ever since the stock lost over 20% of its value due to somewhat bad earnings that lowered the average investor's outlook for this company's growth potential, I put it on my watch list and as soon as the MACD began to turn around slowly but surely in the histogram, I knew that I had timed the bottom of the stock and bought it. 

I am going to keep holding this stock and see how long my timing of the market bottom will take me.

The fundamentals are kind of eh for this stock but the technicals show possibilities for huge upswing. That's what I want to see the during the next week.

Overall, I think that my portfolio may be in for quite a bit of a sell off within the next five days to come. 

The only stock that I am pretty sure will rise is EXPR.

But I don't have the time or effort to try to time these sell offs, since I trade on a custodial account and I have to deal with T-3 and all of that nonsense, and for what? So I can save myself the 1-3% that I may lose? 

Get real. I have another $20,000 coming in and I want to scope out the market looking for more opportunities to invest in.

If I can't find any, since this market is somewhat overbought, I will just add on to my positions.

Anyway, happy holidays and Merry Christmas! My finals have just finished so I will be seriously looking at the markets over Winter Break.

I just managed to get away with a quality GPA for my first semester, so I am pretty happy about that, to say the least. 

bye.

-Kevin




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Saturday, December 14, 2013

Update on the Portfolio, and Why I Can't Trade

I decided to put the extra $30,000 to use.

What I did was add two other positions to my portfolio.

My first buy, $15,000, is NUS.


Now, don't think I am some scrub that would buy a stock just because it is "going up". I am buying this stock not because of the chart, but because of the fundamentals that the company has going for it.

Let's break down my analysis of Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc.


Nothing makes me happier than a stock with some quality fundamentals.

I can name a lot of great things I like about this stock, but do not worry, I will also name negatives about this choice because I don't want to make it seem like I am all-knowing and always correct.

Pros:

1. Market cap is at 7 billion. Most ten-baggers and soon to be large-cap stocks normally start off with a decently smallish market cap with either an extraordinary product or service, or quality fundamentals.

2. There is a dividend. What I personally feel about dividends is that they provide a very nice "safety-net" regarding any stock's share price.

In other words, just imagine this in your head, if a stock were to fall a certain percentage for reasons that do not completely pertain to the company's profitability, such as missing earnings estimates or any such event that would hinder their earnings, then the dividend yield percentage would technically rise.

As long as the company does not cut its dividend, which companies rarely do, as if they establish or raise dividends, then the share price probably won't fall too much. 

I know this is kind of unclear, sorry.

3. P/E Ratio is one to be desired. 26.57 P/E for this fiscal year and a 17.32 Forward P/E is in my opinion, quite undervalued for such quality earnings growth.

4. PEG ratio is below one, again, undervalued in respect to the company's growth.

5. If you take the estimated next year's earnings per share and multiply by this year's P/E ratio, (hopefully also next year's P/E ratio or even larger), the share price should be valued at $200. That means that I would gain 50% return. At the very least, earnings per share are expected to grow by 50%. That can never be a bad thing.

6. Management Metrics are very good. ROE, ROI, ROA are all quality.

7. Profit margins are decent. They can be improved, and whenever I invest in a company I make sure that something can be "improved". That's the metric.

Cons:

1. I now have 2 stocks in Consumer Goods, I am not necessarily diversifying properly.

2. This company has a LOT of competitors. I can't even count them.

3. Although this may seem amateurish, but the stock has gone up quite a bit. It could very well run into some turbulence and maybe even a bear run.

Anyway, I still think that the pros outweigh the cons. That's why I'm a buyer.

My next buy, the other $15,000, is EXPR. Express, an online clothing store.

That's a speculation.


As you can see, this stock has definitely been very volatile. 

It dropped after the company lowered its quarter's earnings expectations.

What I personally feel now is that this stock has definitely been pushed down a bit too far. 

The volatility in this stock just crazy, and I think that the wedge that is forming will allow this stock to meet support at the 18.20 level, the price I bought it at.


Every technical indicator for this stock indicates that it is way oversold. Anyway, I'm not looking to hold this stock forever, I'll probably hold it for a week or two, and see how it pans out.

I would put a stop loss on this trade, but this stock is already very volatile already and I don't want to get stopped out of the trade before I get my gains.

I'll probably put in a stop loss for a 1 dollar loss, but I am pretty sure about this trade anyway.

Let's just ride it out.

Let's also get to why I can't trade, if you are reading this, you are probably wondering why I included that in the title.

I just want to reassure myself that I truly don't have the time to do it.

I already applied for margin to get rid of that annoying T-3 settlement thing that pertains to all cash accounts, so I would technically have the ability to trade.

It's just that I have school on days on which the market is open. I don't have the ability to day trade during school for a couple of reasons: 1: I have to focus. Gotta get them grades. 2: The only method I have to consistently trade is with my phone. That would be hard, because TradeKing's mobile app sucks. I would screw up orders and everything would just be slow.

The only solutions I have?

1. Skip some classes (I have no supervised study) to trade. Not happening.

2. Trade during lunch. Not a bad idea, but I still wouldn't have enough time as the max time I could be in a position is around 30 minutes and trading like that without proper research beforehand is stupidity.

3. Trade FOREX. Still not a bad idea, but then I would have to get to know FOREX first. I'll probably wait until summer to begin my endeavors with that.

It's complicated for me.

I'll just do the best with what I have, and swing trade throughout the rest of the school year.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about this:

Portfolio Update:

Everything is good.

I'm done now.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

50k

Some extra funds just got cleared by tradeking.
 
Now I have 50k to work with. Time to turn on the jets.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Update 12/8/13

It's time for another update on how my portfolio is doing at the moment.

My Portfolio According to SigFig for this Year

It has been just over one year and I think I am doing incredibly well.

In terms of using this information as a feasible "track record", this may not be enough time to be used as a means to get others to invest in me, but I definitely am off to a nice start.

Right now, my two main holdings are still UBNT and MNST.

My updates on those two positions are also quite positive.


UBNT dropped off a hefty 8.71% today. I decided to check on news and commentary on why this stock dropped off.

I found no reason. This may be because my resources are limited and all I can check are the websites which give out free information, or hopefully, this is just a byproduct of market volatility.

I also probably should be expecting that, considering this is an incredibly high growth tech stock.

The fundamentals on the company haven't changed, and the earnings and growth outlook for it are still quite positive and well.

I see no reason to sell it, given the fundamentals are still same and there is no actual reason to why the stock dropped off 8%.

My guess is that an institution decided to sell of their shares of the company, but anyway, I am expecting a decent 4-5% gain on Monday. The negative volume surrounding the 8% drop is a pinnacle.

History repeats itself. Most of the times when this particular stock drops on such high volume, it is followed with a bullish response and shoots up in value.

If the stock still continues to flop then I would be a bit more concerned. Instead of it possibly being market volatility, it could be the end of the high-flying momentum this stock has going for it, although again, the fundamentals of the company are still quite sound.


MNST is now the top performer. My comments on the chart is on the picture below.


It broke out of the negative head and shoulders pattern that happened throughout the course from Sept. to Dec.

It also broke out of the negative trend line from July 15 to Nov 25.

These are all very bullish signals.

I picked this up in Oct 6th, a few days before it began its long path upwards.

Yay.

MNST also has quality fundamentals that have not changed, so I am also not planning on selling off this stock anytime soon.

Other than the fact that I am now in crunch time mode for finals, overall, everything is going really well. Christmas is coming up, too. Awesome.

-Kevin




 

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