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Sunday, February 22, 2015

Noodles and Co. What happened?

Well, what happened during the past Friday was definitely eye-opening to say the least.

One of my holdings, Noodles and Company, released its earnings last Thursday.

The main points of the earnings report that was released during the fourth quarter, according to Jayson Derrick at Benzinga, are that “the company earned $0.13 in the quarter, a penny short of what analysts expected. Revenue of $108.5 million also fell short of the $110.07 million analysts expected. Looking forward to 2015, the company projected an earnings per share growth of around 20 percent, well short of the 34 percent growth analysts projected. In a report published Thursday evening, Wedbush analyst Nick Setyan commented that the company's reported earnings per share was below expectations due to "continued lackluster" same-store sales growth of 1.3 percent. Setyan noted that the company's 2015 earnings per share guidance was cut to 20 percent from a prior guidance of 20 to 25 percent, but continues to be predicted on a 2.5-40 percent same-store sales growth, 19 to 19.5 percent unit-level margins and 12-14 percent unit growth. The analyst added that the comp guidance relies on a 1-1.5 percent lift from catering, a 2 percent contribution from pricing and a "meaningful acceleration" in second half 2015 trends, despite tougher comparisons.”

Basically, the company is growing, albeit definitely not at the rate that investors were hoping for. With a price to earnings ratio at the extremely high levels that they were at before the stock got cut by 30% on Friday, the company was valued at a ratio where it was simply unacceptable for them to make any mistakes whatsoever.

I also heard that same store sales growth was also lackluster compared to other similar competing stores.

All this is all the more surprising with how the stock rallied hard on Thursday. I for one thought that their earnings report was going to be on par, maybe even better than expected.

Anyway, I’m not going to lie, I’m really pissed off with what happened. However, it was definitely still a risk I took and lost. It’s not like it was unfair. Potbelly, my other holding, had an earnings beat and rallied. I guess I couldn't get them both.

I think that there’s going to be a bounce back from the huge sell off which happened. I plan on holding. I don’t really think that this drastic of a sell off was completely deserved.

I still have time to keep letting this investment roll out, and there’s no way I’m going to sell it.
Honestly, if it drops down even more, I may even purchase a larger stake. Time heals all wounds, and I still think that this restaurant has a ways to grow.

Sometimes the best thing to do is to do nothing. The earnings report was not that bad. Still holding. We’ll see if it becomes a mistake.

-Kevin




Sunday, February 8, 2015

The Right Actions to Take

There is a huge opportunity cost associated with doing literally anything that I may want to do. I think it's both a blessing and a curse that there are just so many options for what I feel like doing. The problem is, what I could be spending doing one thing is time literally wasted that I could be doing for another.

So one of the things, if not the most worrying thing I have on my mind is college. Specifically, the college admissions process. That stuff is absolutely scary to me. With what I want to do, and the career path that I have sketched out for myself, I need to get into at least a target school that investment banks recruit from.

I feel like I'm doing most of my stuff right, but it's really times and days like these where I am at my wit's end deciding what to do. Because this is the weekend, there are so many choices for what I want to do to for the advancement of myself.

There are just so many factors that go into a college admission, but the varying importance that colleges may put on each factor, as well as the varying enjoyment I get out of doing certain tasks creates a huge discrepancy.

For example, today is Saturday. It's pretty late now, 1:57 AM. I had to decide between doing the following things. But there are also reasons to not doing those things either, which will also be listed above.


  1. Read "The Intelligent Investor". I'd say this is pretty enjoyable, but it is very dense and the information is really not exactly needed in the short term. 
  2. Get super good with Excel. I heard corporations love you if you know how to Excel but again, there is little chance to implement this knowledge and who wants to be stuck on a Saturday night learning Excel?
  3. Study my AP Gov textbook. This is short term knowledge that would be pretty useful because I have a really important test on Monday, but the first two topics are much more useful for what I want to do later on in my life.
  4. Procrastinate, sleep, and relax. I average about 4-5 hours of sleep on the weekdays and this would be duly welcomed. However I wouldn't be learning anything. I would just be sleeping.
And you know what stinks even more? The fact that I have to decide between these four things makes me super uncomfortable. I can't even get one of them done. Maybe the fourth, but not to the extent that I was hoping for.

So here I am, late Saturday night, with the culmination of that problem being writing this.

There is no moral to the story. Sorry.

-Kevin 

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Portfolio Update, and Falsification

This is just going to be a short little portfolio update. I think.

In case you read this post far into the future, Kevin, as well as the others that may be interested in what sophomore me is thinking at the turn of February, I am thinking that the Super Bowl was a pretty good game this year.

It is peaceful and pretty relaxed; and I feel like updating my blog after neglecting it for a while.

I realized that I only posted a freaking 4 times during 2014. That is unacceptable.

So I am back on the grind. I want to push out more and more content so as to validate my growth.

I have been messing with Think or Swim lately, and I honestly love it. It has a plethora of incredibly useful charting features and it just looks so... Professional.

However, I have not changed my portfolio allocation and or my holdings. My invested capital still remains half in NDLS and half in PBPB.

Right now I just feel like showing you the charts of both of them, as I feel that is sufficient identification.



As you can see, they have been both pretty much in an uptrend. That is good news for me. 

The only thing I am somewhat worried about is that NDLS recently got stuck in a wedge, and it came up with quite a bit of selling activity. I fear that this may cause it to go into a short term downtrend.

But when you look at the weekly chart, you can see that this is most likely a long term trend turnaround. I do not really see this going below the lows it went to during September.


I might put a trailing stop order if I see other potential trades that may be better than this one, however I feel decently confident in the long term performance of this stock.

Things are going pretty well. Although my overall return slipped a little bit from my last post, my trades have both not matured completely.

Onto a different subject.

I don't want to name names or really give exact examples, but I have come into the presence of quite a few cheaters and liars within my tenure as being a student as well as a teenage investor who is quite arguably really involved with this teenage finance society.

I see other teenage investors like me who lie about their performance and gains, and I see it actually pretty often.

But what I have found is that most of these people, if not all of them, are pretty high achievers in their own right. They could just as well be truthful about what they doing and how well they are doing and still be really respected for the work and passion they put into a subject that honestly takes quite a bit of dedication and intellect.

But also, it's not like what I see does not compute with my view on things; I do see the reason why some people might want to claim that they made 72 million dollars off the stock market, or turned one thousand dollars into two hundred thousand dollars within a year.

However, its all really dumb. People want self-validation, pride, a sense of extreme success that is only seen in Hollywood movies and dreams. 

They should have really kept it real. Kept it sane. I know for sure that one of the people in my mind can pretty much never get a real job at Wall Street again, and just can not be trusted or taken seriously anymore. He lied about his performance and it gained national media attention. Was it really worth it? He had what, 48 hours of national fame and is now just a laughingstock, a symbol for the public view of teenagers whom take themselves too seriously.

I'm just blabbing on. I'm getting tired and I have nothing more to say.

-Kevin


Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Yet Another Portfolio Update

So here we are.

It is a new year. My second half of my sophomore year and the first half of my junior year. It seems like a long time ago when I started posting to this blog. It was 8th grade? 7th? I don't feel like checking, so I'll just roll with whatever.

Although the feedback is really lacking, I find myself not minding. I have 13,000 views now, which is honestly pretty insane, at least for the expectations that I put on myself and this project. I find these blog posts to be really cathartic, in that I can reflect on how things are doing, plan the near and far future, as well as see my growth from my old self.

However, I have gotten very few comments. Whatever.

Anyway, things have been going pretty well for me.

My buys, NDLS and PBPB, have both reaped me pretty fantastic returns. Although the S&P and Dow had, respectively, great years of their own,

I got pretty good results from these two.


This is as of today. Which is Thursday, January 8th, 2014.

I think I made a good decision, kind of, in that I looked at their charts and technical indicators and decided that they had just about bottomed out. I thought that PBPB and NDLS were both being heavily battered under a large amount of selling pressure, and that it was somewhat undeserved in that they are still both looking to expand and grow with projected positive forward PE ratios.

I pulled the trigger, and I guess I was really lucky because they actually both did pretty much bottom out when I bought them. 

Sweet. 

Also, a competition is coming up for a business club in my high school that I am a board member of, the annual DECA sectionals. I hope to do well. I'm doing the business finance section of the competition so I feel pretty confident in my ability, but one should never take too much precaution on this sort of thing.

It's getting late. 12:41 on a school night. I should get to bed now.

Till next time,

Kevin

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Another portfolio and life update.

I need to really update my portfolio... I haven't in a long time. My bad.

Sorry.

I don't really know who I would be apologizing to.

My college application team guy, my fellow students who may be reading this, the 3,000 people who have viewed my blog since I last posted?

Wow, that's pretty crazy when I think about it; 3,000 people saw my blog within the time from now and my last post, and my last post left them with the impression that I was holding WETF...

To make a long story short, I sold it a while ago. In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have, but I was honestly bored. It just kept vibrating in some stupid 12 to 10 range, and I was getting tired of it. It went up to 15 after an earnings pop I believe, so that's nice for them.

Sadly, I had already sold it a while before that happened.

Missed out on it. Whatever.

However, I did purchase shares of NDLS and PBPB (Noodles and Co. and Potbelly Sandwich Co.)

Chart performance:



What's fantastic is that I bought them both near their lows, before they popped.


These are the dates that I bought the shares. It was all done in two orders, one for each stock, so I don't really know why it was recorded that way but I am retaining the info on how much of the shares I bought. Reason being I'm sure that there's some law or legal ramifications that I would have a problem with, and if not, I don't think I should disclose how much of each stock I buy anymore. Don't want that information getting around. Hope you understand.

Why? Chart patterns, mostly. The forward P/E on both these companies is positive, and I expect a turnaround in both stock prices within the next year or two. These are growth companies, on the same scale as Chipotle. At least I hope. They have both been bombarded with a large amount of selling activity and I picked them up at their lows. They are still definitely not dirt-cheap, but I am hoping the momentum turns around.

So far it has.

Other important milestones or things I have done... I finished a Republican GOP Internship which was 110 hours of grueling political work, like managing a phone bank and talking straight up Illinois politics with the Field Office managers and directors. Found out how dire our financial situation as a state was. Let's hope Bruce Rauner and co. can turn it around.

It wasn't easy. Would do it again, though. Was definitely a fun experience, although some days my homework was so heavy I had to call on the phone bank and do it at the same time just to get over 5 hours of sleep.

Got elected board member of DECA, my school's business club. Fantastic. I now manage the fundraising social media management sector of the club, as well as the mass email communication system.

I also got to talk on the intercom of the school. That was nice.

Talk soon. Although it's a Saturday, I have so much homework and a project due soon.

Probably shouldn't have spent the time to write this. May backfire on me.

Whatever.

- Kevin

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Beginning the school year

I'm not done.

Nowhere close to being done, to be completely honest. 

I'll get more into how the portfolio is doing once I get to a computer, without having to type up this post on my phone.

Basically, my funds were quite heavily decreased; I was told that I need to make sure my grades are stellar before I get back into the trading game.

However, I still am making a play.

WETF.

Wisdomtree is showing a beautiful chart pattern right now, and the fundamentals of the company are quite nice, with an exceptional return on equity and other general statistics. 

Let me show you the chart pattern. If the picture is botched, please accept my apology for it. I got it from my phone. 


So I'm expecting a nice double bottom with the two zags at the 9.50 and the 10 level. I hope it'll break the negative trend line. That way the entire flow of the price will be rewritten from there.

I'll be talking more from now on. School is getting flat. The tests and homework are stagnating in difficulty. That means more time to do this.

Although with the diminished funds it won't really matter that much, I want to get back on the job.






Sunday, March 2, 2014

Quick Update

Sold off all of my past investments.

Decided to base my new portfolio around managing risk.

I took the aggressive small mid cap growth value play for the next 1-3 months.

Here's my portfolio allocation, I don't think I should give you exact dollar value.



All of these stocks have fast earnings growth and have relatively decent charts. They are either in a nice uptrend or are falling onto a support line.

I'm also thinking about buying some puts on TSLA.

I think it's a bubble waiting to pop.

People are buying this thing up with irrational exuberance, and I feel like even the misinformed are buying this stock because it is simply the "starling of the stock market" these days.


But as for right now, it is still a bit too volatile and unpredictable for my tastes. I might stay away from it for the moment.

 

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